Did Arsenal need to sign a striker to win the Premier League?
- Daniel Sherry
- Feb 13, 2025
- 9 min read
Recently, numerous experts have said that for Arsenal to secure a Premier League title, acquiring a striker during the January transfer window is essential. However, does possessing a top striker invariably ensure success? We conducted an analysis of the past 29 Premier League seasons (since the introduction of 38-game seasons) to explore the reasons behind champions winning the league and why teams with leading strikers do not always achieve success.
The Numbers
Our extensive examination of nearly thirty years of Premier League data uncovers remarkable trends that defy traditional beliefs.
Champions average 83.2 goals per season
Teams with the league's top scorer average only 75.5 goals
The above graphic clearly illustrates an intriguing trend in competitive league play, revealing that the teams which ultimately secure the championship title consistently score a greater number of goals than the team for which the Division's top goalscorer plays for. This observation raises several important points regarding the dynamics of team performance versus individual achievement in the context of football or soccer leagues.
This 7.7 goal difference highlights that collective scoring power trumps individual brilliance
It is essential to recognise that while having a prolific goalscorer can significantly enhance a team's offensive capabilities, the overall success of a team in a league is often determined by collective performance rather than reliance on a single player.
Individual Contributions
Champions' leading scorers average 21 goals per season
League top scorers average 24.5 goals
The surprising revelation: champions' top scorers actually score LESS than the league's top marksmen
But why is this the case? Our analysis of goal distribution among Premier League winning teams, as opposed to the teams with the Premier League's top goal scorers, revealed a key difference: winning teams tend to distribute goals across multiple players, ensuring diverse sources for scoring. In contrast, teams with the top goal scorers often depend heavily on a single player's contributions.
The Depth Factor
Our comprehensive analysis reveals a crucial and significant difference in scoring depth between championship-winning teams and those that feature the league's top scorer. This distinction highlights the importance of having a well-rounded squad capable of contributing to the goal tally, rather than relying solely on one standout player.
Multiple Threats:
Champions have an average of 1.7 additional players scoring 10+ goals as well as their top goalscorer
Top scorer's teams average only 1.32 additional players with 10+ goals as well as the top scorer
Analysis
This 0.38 player difference, while it may seem negligible at first glance, often translates into a critical advantage in tight matches where every goal counts. The ability to call upon more players who can score can shift the momentum of a game and provide essential depth when facing strong opponents.
Mid-Range Scorers:
Champions average 3.1 additional players scoring 5-9 goals as well as their top goalscorer
Top scorer's teams average just 2.1 additional players in this range
Analysis
This significant difference in the number of mid-range scorers not only enhances a team's tactical flexibility but also contributes to their overall resilience. When multiple players are capable of scoring, it alleviates pressure on the primary goal scorer and ensures that the team can adapt to various game situations.
Squad-Wide Contribution:
Champions see an average of 14.2 different players score per season
Top scorer's teams have an average of 13.5 different scorers
Analysis
Even this seemingly minor difference in squad-wide contributions highlights the champions' superior capability to generate goals from various sources. Their ability to find the net from multiple players not only enhances their unpredictability in attack but also fosters a stronger team dynamic, as every player feels involved and valued in the scoring process.
Dependence on a Single Goal Scorer
Champions' top scorers contribute 25.4% of team goals on average, highlighting a balanced offensive strategy that emphasises teamwork and collective effort. This percentage indicates that while the top scorers play a crucial role in the team's success, they are not solely responsible for the majority of the goals.
Instead, it suggests that the champions have a diverse range of players who are capable of finding the back of the net, thereby distributing the scoring responsibilities more evenly across the squad. Such a distribution can lead to a more unpredictable and formidable attacking unit, making it difficult for opposing defences to focus their efforts on containing a single player.
On the other hand, Premier League top scorers account for 32.9% of their team's goals on average, which reflects a reliance on individual brilliance to secure victories. This higher percentage indicates that the leading scorers in the league are often the focal point of their teams' attacking plays. While having a prolific goal-scorer can be advantageous, this dependency may also expose teams to vulnerabilities, especially if that individual is marked tightly or suffers an injury. The higher concentration of goals from a single player can create a scenario where the team struggles to maintain offensive effectiveness if that player is unable to perform at their usual level. Thus, while these players are instrumental in their teams' successes, their contributions can sometimes overshadow the collective efforts of their teammates.
Analysis
This 7.5% difference reveals champions' superior scoring distribution, illustrating how a more balanced approach can lead to greater overall success in the league. The champions' ability to spread goal-scoring responsibilities across multiple players not only enhances their tactical flexibility but also fosters a sense of unity and collaboration within the squad. Teams that rely on a singular star player may find themselves at a disadvantage if that player is neutralised in critical matches.
In contrast, champions who cultivate a team-oriented scoring strategy are often better equipped to adapt to various game situations, as they can draw on multiple sources of offensive firepower. This scoring distribution not only contributes to a more robust team dynamic but also increases the likelihood of sustained success over the course of a season, as it mitigates the risks associated with over-reliance on a few key individuals.
The graph below further highlights this point, illustrating that in the past 29 seasons, Premier League top scorers have only won the league title 27% of the time. Additionally, the average finishing position of the top scorer's team during these seasons is 3.2, indicating that having a top scorer does not ensure success.
Modern Context:
Recent seasons have clearly demonstrated that an excessive dependence on one or two players for scoring can lead to a lower league standing. In the 22/23 season, Harry Kane scored 30 goals for Spurs, accounting for 47.6% of the team's total 63 goals. This illustrates Spurs' reliance on a single player for a significant portion of their scoring output. Such dependence on Harry Kane contributed to their disappointing 8th place finish.
What are the characteristics of a team capable of winning the Premier League?
After concluding that possessing a top striker does not ensure success, we analysed the common factors distinguishing Premier League Champions from teams with top strikers who did not secure the league title.
After analysing the champions of the last 29 Premier League seasons, the ideal model appears to be:
A team capable of scoring 80+ goals per season
Multiple players contributing 10-15 goals each
Less reliance on a single striker
Goals from midfield and defence"
However this is not the only way to win the Premier League. We can see this by looking at real life examples.
Different ways of winning the Premier League
Winning the Premier League without a recognised striker ( Manchester City 21/22)
After Sergio Aguero left at the end of the 20/21 season, Manchester City went into the 21/22 season without a recognised top striker at the club. Despite this, they went on to be crowned Premier League champions, scoring 99 goals in the process. Manchester City achieved this by finding goals from multiple sources. Their top scorer, Kevin De Bruyne only scored 15 goals, 15.15% of the 99 scored overall (24.5% is the average for the top scorers of Premier League champions). Other than De Bruyne, Manchester City had 2 additional players who scored 10+ goals, 5 players who scored in between 5 and 9 goals and 6 players who scored between 2 and 4 goals.
This demonstrates that by distributing goals among various players within the team, facilitated by a well-defined style of play, it is indeed possible for teams to secure victory in the Premier League even in the absence of a traditional top striker. The strategic approach of spreading goal-scoring responsibilities can lead to a more cohesive team dynamic, where every player feels empowered to contribute offensively.
In this context, a team's style of play becomes crucial. For instance, a possession-based system that emphasises quick ball movement and fluid attacking patterns can create numerous scoring opportunities for midfielders and wingers, allowing them to capitalise on chances typically reserved for a central forward. By employing tactics that encourage overlapping runs and exploiting space, teams can effectively confuse defences and create openings for multiple players, thereby diminishing the reliance on a single goal-scorer.
Winning the Premier League, whilst being reliant on a top striker for goals (Arsenal 03/04)
In the 03/04 season, Arsenal won the Premier League, scoring 71 goals in the process. In contrast to the Manchester City team of 21/22, Arsenal's top scorer, Thierry Henry scored 41.1% (30) of Arsenal's goals. Alongside Henry, Arsenal only had 1 additional player who scored 10+ goals, 0 players who scored between 5 and 9 goals, and 6 players who scored between 2 and 4 goals.
In this instance, Arsenal secured the Premier League title by depending on a leading striker for goal scoring, a strategy that was both effective and pivotal for the team's overall performance throughout the season.
However, this model is contingent upon the critical factor of player health; it proves successful provided that the team's primary goal scorer remains injury-free and capable of delivering the expected output week in and week out.
Nevertheless, the potential for injury is an ever-present risk in professional sports, and should an injury occur, a team heavily reliant on their top striker, as Arsenal was during their title-winning campaign, may face significant challenges in sourcing goals from other players.
Furthermore, the pressure on secondary scorers to step up can be immense, and not all players may be equipped to handle such expectations effectively. Thus, while relying on a leading striker can be a sound strategy for achieving success in the Premier League, it also carries inherent risks that can jeopardise a team's title aspirations in the event of an injury.
The graph below illustrates the distribution of goals from both seasons, highlighting the various strategies teams can use to win the Premier League.
Arsenal's Goalscoring strategy over the last 2 seasons - Do they need a striker?
When you compare the distribution of Arsenal's goalscorers over the last two seasons, to the Premier League Champions from over the past 30 years, some key points arise.
The goal distribution of their team surpasses the average of champions from the past 29 seasons. As illustrated in the graph below, over the last two seasons, Arsenal has exceeded the average of Premier League champions in terms of the number of additional players who scored 10 or more goals, as well as the number of players who scored between 2 and 4 goals. This indicates that Arsenal is not overly dependent on one or two players for goals and, in fact, demonstrates superior goal distribution across their squad compared to the average Premier League champion.
Where Arsenal Fall Short
Analysing the data from Arsenal's last two seasons clearly highlights where they fall short compared to the Premier League Champions.
The data reveals two critical insights that highlight why Arsenal are struggling to win the Premier League.
1. Top Scorer Goal Contribution:
The bar chart highlights a notable gap in top scorer performance, with Premier League Champions' leading striker averaging 21 goals, while Arsenal's top scorer averages 15.5 goals. This 5.5-goal difference is significant in a league where competition is fierce and margins are slim.
2. Goal Distribution Impact:
The pie charts reveal that the Champions' top scorer plays a significantly more dominant role in the team's offensive strategy, contributing 25.42% of the total goals. In contrast, Arsenal's top scorer accounts for only 17.29% of their team's goals, highlighting a less central role in goal-scoring.
Key Implications:
Arsenal lacks a clinical, high-volume goal scorer who can consistently deliver match-winning performances
The current goal distribution suggests Arsenal's scoring is more evenly spread, which can be a weakness in high-stakes matches
Premier League Champions typically feature a prolific striker who can:
Score crucial goals in tight games
Provide a consistent goal threat
Deliver match-winning contributions in critical moments
The data suggests that to win the Premier League, Arsenal needs to recruit a top-tier striker who can:
- Consistently score 20+ goals per season
- Contribute closer to 25-30% of the team's total goals
- Provide a focal point for the team's attacking strategy
Conclusion - Did Arsenal need to sign a striker to win the Premier League?
YES.
Overall, Arsenal have clearly shown that they have the attacking depth and quality to win the Premier League. This can be seen by the fact they are not over reliant on one player for goals and that they distribute their goals around their squad.
However, compared to Premier League Champions of the past, they lack a top striker with that killer instinct who can provide a constant goal threat and provide crucial goals in big games.
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